538
ACUS11 KWNS 032237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032236
NCZ000-SCZ000-040030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032236Z - 040030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...ACROSS CENTRAL SC, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN EXPANDING COLD POOL DEPOSITED
BY PRIOR CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S - A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED BY SOME GUIDANCE - AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
ADVECTING LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. THIS IS NOT ONLY PROMOTING SLIGHTLY BETTER BUOYANCY THAN
DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE AND RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES, BUT IS ALSO
MAINTAINING A NARROW WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE STORMS. REGIONAL VWPS
ARE SAMPLING MODEST WIND PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM BWD VALUES AROUND 30
KNOTS, WHICH MAY PROMOTE PERIODIC ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION OF
ONGOING CONVECTION WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A
RECENT TREND OF COOLING CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT
COULD MATERIALIZE IN THE NEAR TERM (NEXT 1-2 HOURS).
WHILE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
ARE LARGELY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD
POOL. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS MAY LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY AND
SHOULD MODULATE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NC. ADDITIONALLY,
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE COMING HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BUOYANCY AND LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AFTER
ROUGHLY 00 UTC.
..MOORE/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 32958127 33528109 35437991 35757958 35837902 35837873
35727851 35567842 35497841 35247852 33637990 32958055
32808073 32758092 32788111 32958127
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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