925
ACUS03 KWNS 040733
SWODY3
SPC AC 040733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EAST
TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD WILL BRING UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS IN
SOUTH/CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EARLY PERIOD PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ALONG A WARM FRONT
WITHIN THE RED RIVER REGION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA. ADDITIONAL
EARLY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER IN THIS SCENARIO. A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SABINE VALLEY
THE EXPECTATION OF EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION COMPLICATES THE OVERALL
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST
OF THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS/MCS. IN THIS SCENARIO,
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AHEAD
OF IT. THE GFS/NAM SHOW GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HERE, SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
HIGHLIGHT ANY PARTICULARLY AREA.
..RED RIVER INTO ARKLATEX
STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY
AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE BUOYANCY WOULD PROMOTE A RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NUMEROUS STORMS AND THEIR
INTERACTIONS WILL TEND TO TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH SURFACE-BASED STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM FRONT ZONE.
..WENDT.. 05/04/2025
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