717
ACUS11 KWNS 041048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041047
NCZ000-VAZ000-041345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041047Z - 041345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO,
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EVENTUALLY INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST, NOW COMPLETELY OUT OF SC AND OVER EASTERN NC. EARLIER, A 50 KT
GUST WAS MEASURED NEAR NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.
IN ADDITION TO THE NARROW NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION, OTHER
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
PERIODIC WEAK MESOCYCLONES. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEAR-SEVERE INBOUND VELOCITIES MAINLY OVER THE WATER, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND.
THE AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE REPORTS THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL SRH WITH 0-1 KM VALUES OF
100-150 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER
STORMS, THOUGH ANY TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END IN NATURE.
..JEWELL/GUYER.. 05/04/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34287759 34747770 35277766 35727769 36237777 36527764
36767746 36937694 37027655 36907623 36587595 36127580
35557602 34707651 34217694 34087732 34287759
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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