616
ACUS11 KWNS 041802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041802
NMZ000-042000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041802Z - 042000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MORE FAVORABLE SUPERCELL REGIME IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, SPORADIC/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO SOUTHEAST NM, A DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, CENTERED ON WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NM. HOWEVER, THIS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A PREDOMINANTLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME, LIMITING VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS PREDOMINATELY HOLDING IN THE
30S, SUPPORTING ONLY MEAGER BUOYANCY, OVERALL SETUP IS UNLIKELY TO
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE. NEVERTHELESS, WELL-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL OFFER A THREAT FOR SPORADIC STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS, AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 05/04/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 36950668 36570557 35670480 34850456 34270624 33220656
33120741 34080806 35820861 36530846 36950668
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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