499
ACUS03 KWNS 041920
SWODY3
SPC AC 041919
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EAST
TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
..OK/TX TO LA
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AIDS IN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TX. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH TX/THE RED RIVER VICINITY. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY LIKELY ONGOING CONVECTION TUESDAY
MORNING, BOTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY WITH A REMNANT
CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S F WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THOUGH STORM MODE
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLUSTERING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALSO COULD RESULT IN A DEVELOPING
MCS. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE IS POSSIBLE AND OUTLOOK UPGRADES MAY BE NEEDED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX,
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, MODERATE SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS.
..LEITMAN.. 05/04/2025
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