099
ACUS03 KWNS 050727
SWODY3
SPC AC 050727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST,
BUT DECREASING WITH TIME, MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
A STABLE AIRMASS AND DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT IT WILL POSE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS OUTFLOW STALLING IN
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND LINGERING MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR A ZONE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF/GFS PUSH OUTFLOW OFFSHORE. THERE IS ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, SOME
CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE NEUTRAL.
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..WENDT.. 05/05/2025
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