288
ACUS11 KWNS 051605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051605
NCZ000-VAZ000-051800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051605Z - 051800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. MONITORING
FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A COMPACT MID-LEVEL JETLET, CURLING AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROADER OH VALLEY LOW AND ATTENDANT
TROUGH, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION ALONG A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN NC COAST. WITH EASTERN EXTENT, HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE
WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE AS IT PROGRESSIVELY BECOMES MORE OF A J TO
REVERSE-L SHAPE. BUT THIS WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH MAY BE
COMPENSATED BY GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND MLCAPE WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. OVERALL SETUP IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING STORMS WITH A MIXED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 05/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 35137940 36627911 37867899 38317880 38367782 37697710
37037701 36087724 35297715 34927698 34697723 34447773
34377814 34877908 35137940
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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