869
ACUS11 KWNS 051748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051747
NMZ000-052015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051747Z - 052015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORM CORES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH MRMS AND KABX MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT
HAIL MAY BE EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.
WITH A 500 MB SPEED MAX PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
OVERSPREADING NM, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD EXCEED 40 KTS (PER
LATEST MESOANALYSIS). ABX VAD SHOWS AN ELONGATED STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH,
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTING CONTINUED SUPERCELLS
STRUCTURES WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE AND OVERALL BUOYANCY IS SCANT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. AS SUCH, A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 05/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34590726 35060772 35940812 36600797 36850775 36980747
36870682 36700665 36270642 35570597 35020613 34650640
34510688 34590726
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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