407
ACUS11 KWNS 051818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051818
TXZ000-051915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051818Z - 051915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT WITH
AN INTENSIFYING SUPERCELL. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS, THOUGH A TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...MRMS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING SUPERCELL
UPDRAFT ACROSS LEE COUNTY, TX, WITH 40 DBZ ECHOES EXCEEDING 50 KFT
AND MESH EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. KGRK RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS SUPERCELL
DEVIATING TO THE RIGHT, TOWARD A SURFACE AIRMASS WITH MID TO UPPER
70S/60S F TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CURRENTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELL MAY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED, ALLOWING FOR THIS STORM TO INGEST MORE BUOYANT
PARCELS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (EVIDENT VIA CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ON THE EWX AND GRK VADS). AS SUCH, A SEVERE HAIL/GUST
THREAT MAY BE INCREASING, AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 05/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29849647 29969714 30209731 30539728 30559633 30479579
30359565 30009562 29829619 29849647
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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