940
ACUS03 KWNS 051914
SWODY3
SPC AC 051914
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
..EDWARDS PLATEAU TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
A STALLED FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
FRONT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. FORCING
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH UNCAPPED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE, EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ANY
SUPERCELLS WHICH DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE TO POTENTIALLY
VERY LARGE HAIL. STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
IF THE FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS ONSHORE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, THE MARGINAL RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO
THIS REGION. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
HOW DAY 2 CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FRONT/OUTFLOW
LOCATION ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
..OKLAHOMA
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE QUALITY
ALONG THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN WHICH PRECLUDES A MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, IF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS APPEAR LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WOULD EXIST BENEATH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
..BENTLEY.. 05/05/2025
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