204
ACUS11 KWNS 052130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052129
VAZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-052330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052129Z - 052330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL
MIGRATE INTO A BUOYANT AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND MAY RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT. WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED TO
ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION...A MIX OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAKLY
ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTH OUT OF
SOUTHEAST VA. WHILE A FEW STRONGER CORES PERSIST, MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK/DISORGANIZED BASED ON GOES IR
IMAGERY AND MRMS VERTICAL ICE/ECHO TOP DATA. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY BETTER BUOYANCY
(MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG) THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. CONSEQUENTLY, SOME UPTICK IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWPS
IS FAIRLY MODEST - AROUND 20-25 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BWD. HOWEVER, THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 05/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 37687760 38617858 39057882 39307881 39677865 39997827
40077798 40057760 39837722 39257636 38867603 38407592
38117592 37777606 37557624 37357656 37357685 37467726
37687760
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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