487
ACUS11 KWNS 052256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052256
OHZ000-060030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226...
VALID 052256Z - 060030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS
OF WW 226 MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL,
THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG OR FAR DOWNSTREAM THIS THREAT WILL
PERSIST.
DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY DATA FROM KCLE SHOWS AN
ORGANIZED, BUT COMPACT, CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OH. WIND VELOCITIES BETWEEN 1-1.2 KM ABOVE
RADAR LEVEL WERE RECENTLY SAMPLED AT 35-45 KNOTS, WHICH SUGGESTS
WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE BAND. ENVIRONMENTALLY, THIS LINE IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY
APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY AND CONTINUES TO MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, A 35 KNOT 0-3 KM WIND SHEAR VECTOR
SAMPLED BY THE NEARBY KCLE VWP IS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE LINE, AND
STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ASCENT AND SOME DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE. CONSEQUENTLY,
THIS LINE MAY POSE A DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OH. EVENTUALLY, DIMINISHING BUOYANCY WITH
NORTHWEST EXTENT WILL LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE BAND SO DOWNSTREAM
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED (THOUGH LOCAL WATCH EXPANSIONS HAVE
BEEN MADE), BUT EXACTLY WHEN THIS OCCURS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR.
..MOORE.. 05/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 40348259 40238294 40458314 40788350 41088358 41288343
41418315 41488280 41408242 41288212 41088177 40688154
40478152 40328167 40398226 40348259
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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