755
ACUS11 KWNS 060431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060430
TXZ000-NMZ000-060630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT SERN NM
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 229...
VALID 060430Z - 060630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 229 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM INITIATION NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY INTO DEL RIO VICINITY. A FEW CELLS MAY
UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY. THIS IS
FOCUSED WITHIN MODESTLY DEEP SURFACE TROUGHING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A
SURFACE LOW, NOW CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF FORT STOCKTON, WHERE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAS SPREAD AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED-LAYER
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF INHIBITION, STRENGTHENING CONVECTION
ROOTED WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, SUPPORTED BY BOTH STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND NOW ENLARGED, CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG
A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (40-50 KT AROUND 850 MB). THIS
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY CONDUCIVE TO A COUPLE OF INTENSE
SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR.. 05/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270
30760382 31330385 31890394
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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