280
ACUS03 KWNS 060721
SWODY3
SPC AC 060720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY,
THOUGH STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA COAST.
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BROAD AND ELONGATED
IN THE MIDWEST/EAST ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A STRONG BELT OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED, BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON A REMNANT BOUNDARY.
..FLORIDA
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN
EAST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE AROUND
-11 C AT 500 MB. WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
REGION, IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NAM IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. OTHER GUIDANCE HAS THE
STRONGER WINDS LAGGING TO THE WEST.
..NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STRONG ENOUGH
WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS MEDIUM TO HIGH, BUT POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUD COVER FROM ISOLATED EARLY DAY ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROUGH
AND ACTIVITY NEAR THE GULF COAST INCREASES UNCERTAINTY IN ADEQUATE
BUOYANCY.
..WENDT.. 05/06/2025
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