956
ACUS11 KWNS 061006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061006
TXZ000-061130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TX CONCHO VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...
VALID 061006Z - 061130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. A TORNADO THREAT ALSO
REMAINS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY REGION OF TX INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE BULK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED TO THE NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
THE LINE SEGMENT THAT EARLIER ORGANIZED ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW MOVING THROUGH SAN ANGELO COULD POSE A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS, IN ADDITION TO HAIL WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, INCREASING CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTO CROCKETT COUNTY, TX. CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT AND RICH SURFACE
MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SUPPORT
A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL THAT MOVES
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
..DEAN.. 05/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30740160 31650092 32619985 32999917 32989797 31629805
30979850 30329929 30310159 30740160
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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