137
ACUS11 KWNS 061614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061614
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-061745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061614Z - 061745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS SUPPORTED RAPID
DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA (45-50 KNOTS PER LCH VWP) HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT FORCING
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WHICH
HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE QUICKLY SHOWN SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AMID
40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (PER LCH VWP). WHILE A TORNADO THREAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, STORM PROPAGATION ACROSS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
MOSTLY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DUE TO THE PROPAGATION ACROSS THE FRONT AND DISPLACEMENT WELL EAST
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, DURATION OF THE THREAT AND NECESSITY FOR
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS UNCLEAR.
..BENTLEY/GLEASON.. 05/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30989361 31279253 31229172 30929058 30469020 29649072
29409141 29539241 29739328 29909353 30989361
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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