339
ACUS03 KWNS 061931
SWODY3
SPC AC 061930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
..SYNOPSIS
A TRIO OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL AID IN PLACEMENT OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FROM QC TO THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF 30-50 KT 500-MB SOUTHWESTERLIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR
BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL JETLETS, CENTERED ON THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND TRAILING INTO
CENTRAL/EAST TX. ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE WEAK, WITH
MINOR LOWS IN THE MID-SOUTH AND VA. A SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD NOSE DOWN
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
..RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THE LOWER-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH MAY
DAMPEN SOMEWHAT. BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS-PECOS
MOVING/DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGING WILL
TEMPER BUOYANCY NORTHWEST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. BUT A SUFFICIENT COMBO
OF CAPE/SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTS.
..MID/DEEP SOUTH
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IS STRONGEST NEAR THE MID-SOUTH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
DURING PEAK HEATING AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE
MORNING. THE IMPACT OF THE EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY YIELDS A MORE NEBULOUS
EVOLUTION TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF IT ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. WHERE MORE ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL OFFER A THREAT OF BOTH SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
..SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
A MIX OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. A MODERATE COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES AND MLCAPE SHOULD FOSTER A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
CELLS/CLUSTERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
..LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AMID LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS, ALONG AND EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
..GRAMS.. 05/06/2025
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