142
ACUS11 KWNS 062301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062301
LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-070100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN/ERN LA...WRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 234...235...
VALID 062301Z - 070100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 234, 235 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY INTENSIFY AND
POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO THROUGH 7-9 PM CDT. OTHERWISE, STORMS MAY
TEND TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ANOTHER ORGANIZING BUT SLOW MOVING
CLUSTER, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...A MESO-BETA SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, WITH A COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS
ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION BEING MAINTAINED TO ITS IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH. THIS HAS EVOLVED ALONG A WEAK NEAR-SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 21-22Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A NOTABLE 2-HOURLY SURFACE FALL/RISE COUPLET
(IN EXCESS OF 2 MB) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PERTURBATION, THOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIVE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH HAS OR COULD
STILL BECOME ROOTED WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS LIKELY BEEN
SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION, BENEATH STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.
AS LONG AS DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION, AS THESE CELLS BECOME
ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER, IN THE PRESENCE OF SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER, WITHIN TIME, MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SOUTHERLY 850 MB MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN, AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION
MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ORGANIZED BUT SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.
..KERR.. 05/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31039410 31689319 32189265 32629203 33089111 32398983
31038984 29559026 29659157 29779296 29759398 30419446
31039410
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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