892
ACUS11 KWNS 070006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070006
TXZ000-070200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 070006Z - 070200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE MAY
CROSS INTO FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ARE
UNDERWAY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO
THE WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE. STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED
AWAY FROM THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALONG THE TERRAIN WILL MIGRATE INTO
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIR MASS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO
DEEP SOUTH TX WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO ROBUST
SUPERCELLS GIVEN A VERY BUOYANT AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
(MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 4000 J/KG WITH ~60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR). ONE DEEPER/STRONGER CELL NORTHWEST OF RIO GRANDE CITY,
TX HAS RECENTLY EXHIBITED ECHO TOPS ABOVE 50 KFT, SUGGESTING THAT
THIS CELL COULD REMAIN SUSTAINED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND POSE A
DOWNSTREAM THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 2.0 TO 3.5
INCHES) AND SEVERE WINDS. RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 05/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26349909 26589923 27119958 27289946 27269910 26969768
26869740 26629735 26319722 25999722 25899727 25839749
25949778 26039825 26109847 26199874 26269899 26349909
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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