828
ACUS11 KWNS 070035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070035
TXZ000-070230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 070035Z - 070230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE
BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND GOES IR IMAGERY SHOW
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE TOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN. THE NEAR-STORM CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AROUND 4000 J/KG MLCAPE AND
ROUGHLY 60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RECENTLY SAMPLED BY THE 00
UTC CRP SOUNDING. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT (POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 2.0 TO 3.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER). STRONGER CAPPING WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTEND SHOULD LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
DISCRETE, POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR
TRENDS OF THE DEVELOPING CELLS (ECHO TOPS BEGINNING TO EXCEED 40-50
KFT), WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS PROBABLE.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 05/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 27689711 27549718 27379733 27329746 27389775 27569870
27719885 27919881 28199863 28849798 29339730 29469693
29449666 29259649 29079638 28809628 28589623 28439625
28409636 27969693 27689711
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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