606
ACUS11 KWNS 070301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070300
TXZ000-070500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236...
VALID 070300Z - 070500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
04 UTC ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO
PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX HAVE SHOWN PERIODS OF VIGOROUS
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
STORM PROPAGATION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST. RECENT RADAR ANALYSIS FROM KCRP SHOWS THAT THIS BOUNDARY
LIKELY EXTENDS TO AT LEAST 2 KM ABOVE RADAR LEVEL, WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR THE MIXED-LAYER LFC BASED ON A MODIFIED 00 UTC CRP SOUNDING AND
RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONSEQUENTLY, RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
ONGOING CONVECTION AND/OR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS NEAR-SURFACE PARCELS ARE LIFTED CLOSE
TO THEIR LFC. EVEN WITH MODULATED NOCTURNAL COOLING, MLCAPE REMAINS
BETWEEN 3500-4000 J/KG, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (~50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SAMPLED BY KCRP'S
VWP) WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH
THE MORE ROBUST SUPERCELLS. HAIL REPORTS UP TO 2.0 INCHES HAVE BEEN
NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR, BUT THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BETWEEN 2.0 TO
3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THIS THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE FRONT/OUTFLOW REACHES THE COAST.
..MOORE.. 05/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 27349924 27429914 28369776 29039672 29129641 29089615
28939601 28779599 28659604 28369644 28179684 27829716
27609736 27439750 27289774 27129797 27059822 27039861
27069891 27139918 27219923 27349924
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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