827
ACUS03 KWNS 070713
SWODY3
SPC AC 070712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND CENTRAL/COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
THE ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A
STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING
IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH. MUCH OF THE STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. DURING THE
AFTERNOON, REMNANT 30-40 KTS MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE.
..FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
DEWPOINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOW/MID 60S F DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION WITHIN THE GULF, MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE FLORIDA SEA
BREEZE. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SEE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
UNLESS SOME CLUSTERING CAN OCCUR. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..WENDT.. 05/07/2025
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