313
ACUS48 KWNS 070814
SWOD48
SPC AC 070813
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2025
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE SITUATED IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE REPEATED DAYS OF CONVECTION WITHIN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOWER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT HOW ORGANIZED/INTENSE IT WILL BE
IS NOT CERTAIN. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF
A WESTERN TROUGH. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION, THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF FOR A
FEW DAYS BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE
MID-WEEK TROUGH.
THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MOISTURE
QUALITY. SECONDLY, MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT THE STRONGEST FORCING TO
BE WITHIN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NORTH. AT LEAST AS CURRENTLY FORECAST, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PARTICULAR TREND IN
GUIDANCE IS RECENT AND CONFIDENCE IS ACCORDINGLY LOW, BUT MODEL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
..WENDT.. 05/07/2025
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