412
ACUS11 KWNS 070900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070900
TXZ000-071030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237...
VALID 070900Z - 071030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE, IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL BUT OCCASIONALLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
HAS EVOLVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND BRO DEPICTED VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
(WITH 1 KM MEAN MIXING RATIOS GREATER THAN 18 G/KG) BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WERE ALSO OBSERVED WITH
THESE SOUNDINGS, WHICH AIDED IN EARLIER INTENSE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT THAT RESULTED IN GIANT HAIL IN SAN YGNACIO, TX.
SOME RECENT UPSCALE GROWTH HAS BEEN NOTED, WITH SMALLER CELLS
FORMING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST OF THE
INITIAL SUPERCELL CLUSTER. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF SUBSTANTIAL COLD
POOL DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR PRIOR TO STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE, BUT SOME
INCREASE IN THE SEVERE-WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.
IF A MORE ORGANIZED MCS DOES DEVELOP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
TENDENCY FOR IT TO PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR AN
OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED SURFACE FRONT, WITHIN THE BUOYANCY GRADIENT AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRONGER CAPPING.
..DEAN.. 05/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 27819915 28689647 28809605 28199578 27429653 26999697
26379734 26359840 26449883 26559915 26869899 27239881
27499906 27819915
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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