613
ACUS03 KWNS 071923
SWODY3
SPC AC 071922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, FROM DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME
HAIL, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES, MAINLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SEPARATE INTO A
MORE COMPACT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCOMPANY
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE, TRACKING FROM THE VA VICINITY
TOWARDS COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
..SOUTHEAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL CONFINE THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF AT LEAST MODERATE MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD OVERLAP A BROAD SWATH OF 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS, WITH STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWARD WHERE MODERATE BUOYANCY IS ANTICIPATED. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
TIED TO THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH OF THIS PLUME. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES
AND LEE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS.. 05/07/2025
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