270
ACUS11 KWNS 072346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072345
OKZ000-080115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072345Z - 080115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO SEVERE LIMITS. THIS
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED; WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INTENSITY AS THEY MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OK, WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT STORM ORGANIZATION TO PRODUCE HAIL STONES OF
AROUND ONE INCH. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY BEING
DRIVEN BY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BENEATH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION. MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL LIKELY BE THE BUOYANCY
ZENITH WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN MLCAPE EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF
THE EARLY EVENING TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED
AND SHORT-LIVED, AND WILL NOT REQUIRE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 05/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35919845 36019818 36619643 36759588 36689548 36429509
36189483 35849461 35459446 34979456 34729491 34719563
35379835 35629850 35919845
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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