891
ACUS02 KWNS 080550
SWODY2
SPC AC 080549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, MAINLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST WILL SHEAR APART THE
ELONGATED TROUGH STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS IN THE EAST. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. A DIFFUSE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
GULF/ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN FLORIDA. A BELT OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE GULF/ATLANTIC COASTS WILL PROMOTE MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION.
..SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE GREATER IN THESE AREAS. WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND FRONT MOVING THROUGH, THERE COULD BE A GREATER CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST
MODEST EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, THERE COULD BE A
LOCALLY GREATER CORRIDOR OF WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.
..SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SURFACE HEATING NEAR A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY (ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
IN FLORIDA) WILL PROMOTE 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. A
BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AS WELL.
..FLORIDA PANHANDLE
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN MCV WITHIN THE GULF, SURFACE HEATING
AND THE GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST (25-30 KTS),
BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD THE MCV TRACK CLOSER TO THE SHORE, SURFACE
HEATING WOULD BE MORE LIMITED, BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV.
..WENDT.. 05/08/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page