544
ACUS03 KWNS 080733
SWODY3
SPC AC 080733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE GULF COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARM FRONT
AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGIONS.
A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING.
..FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE CONCERN FOR CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST AND WITHIN THE GULF ITSELF. HOWEVER, A PLUME OF STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXTENT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS, BUT A TORNADO COULD OCCUR NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND SHEAR WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO RAIN
NEGATIVELY IMPACTING INFLOW OF STORMS.
..SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WITH THE APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK MLCAPE IN
SOME AREAS. A FEW STRONG TO NEAR-SEVERE GUSTS COULD OCCUR, BUT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DOES NOT CURRENTLY WARRANT PROBABILITIES.
..WENDT.. 05/08/2025
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