958
ACUS48 KWNS 080858
SWOD48
SPC AC 080856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SOUTHEAST INTO MID-ATLANTIC
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS, CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER TO IMPACT SURFACE
HEATING DOES NOT SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST.
FURTHERMORE, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST. MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER FLORIDA UNTIL
MIDWEEK. WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE RELATIVELY HIGHER
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MODELS STILL SHOW
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ON ACCOUNT OF THE UNCERTAIN SURFACE HEATING
DESCRIBED EARLIER.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS IT MAY BE
LIMITED, BUT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS
ON SUNDAY IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UNCERTAINTY IN
STORM INTENSITY PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTS, HOWEVER. AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD, MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA. ASIDE FROM
QUESTIONS ABOUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE
TROUGH VARIES IN GUIDANCE AND MAKES THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
TOO UNCERTAIN FOR HIGHLIGHTS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH TO
IMPACT THESE REGIONS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE STRONGER WINDS/GREATEST FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT SPATIALLY,
HOWEVER. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE GEFS/EPS ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROUGH IN THE
MEAN NEXT WEEK DOES GIVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN.
AVAILABLE ML GUIDANCE HAS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE PATTERN SHIFT AND
STARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASED SIGNAL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, IT IS A FEATURE THAT IS
NOT PREDICTABLE IN TERMS OF HOW FAST IT WILL DEPART. IF GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT, IT WILL MOVE OUT RIGHT AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS. THIS
LEAVES LITTLE TIME FOR A DEEP MOIST LAYER TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD AFTER A FEW DAYS OF OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DO SHOW MID/UPPER
60S F DEWPOINTS. THAT SAID, THE MOISTURE PROFILE IN THE VERTICAL IS
QUITE POOR. IT IS NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND THAT A SIGNAL FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. LASTLY, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO APPRECIABLY COOL GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN. TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..WENDT.. 05/08/2025
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