460
ACUS11 KWNS 081256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081256
FLZ000-081430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081256Z - 081430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR A WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
WATERS, AND WEAK ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH CELLS NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY.
IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE ROBUST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, THE EXTENT TO
WHICH THE ONGOING CONVECTION CAN STRENGTHEN AND BE SUSTAINED IS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG, AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29938549 30438500 30458423 30298379 29948357 29658359
29478394 29418431 29588524 29938549
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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