127
ACUS11 KWNS 081258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081258
TXZ000-081430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081258Z - 081430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MORNING, WITH MLCAPE ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL
MLCINH ALREADY NOTED ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT
MESOANALYSES. WITH THE PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STILL WELL TO THE WEST, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY, AND SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN INITIATE AND BE SUSTAINED THIS MORNING,
STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. GIVEN THE CONDITIONALITY OF
THE MORNING THREAT, THE SHORT-TERM NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE IS
UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, WITH EVENTUAL WATCH ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 25889710 25959805 26209836 26659846 27349827 27549791
27539756 27479711 26419698 25889710
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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