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ACUS11 KWNS 081730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081729
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-081930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...FAR
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081729Z - 081930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS WARMED AND DESTABILIZED THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THIS REGION, OWING TO COOLING TEMPERATURE ALOFT. LARGELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
..THORNTON/GLEASON.. 05/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 31398266 31538266 32008247 32488220 32528154 32338107
32008087 31388132 30418141 30068125 29848129 29858167
30058214 30528262 31398266
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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