183
ACUS02 KWNS 101712
SWODY2
SPC AC 101710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY, POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL, LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
..SOUTHEAST
A MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CELLS AND CLUSTERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, CLOSER TO THE
UPPER CYCLONE CENTER ACROSS MS/AL WILL SUPPORT STEEPENED MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AMID ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. THIS WILL FOSTER
A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS,
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS. ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS, HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER EAST, CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT MESSIER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF FL/GA SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
BANDS AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM THE FL PENINSULA INTO
COASTAL GA/SC. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
FURTHER EAST, IF STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER. A MIX OF MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BRING A RISK
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS FROM CENTRAL MT INTO WESTERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG DOWNWARD TRANSPORT AND
EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES WILL FOSTER STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF ANY UPDRAFT CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS
OCCURS.
..LEITMAN.. 05/10/2025
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