357
ACUS02 KWNS 110442
SWODY2
SPC AC 110440
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FL...MUCH OF GA AND
SC...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NC...NRN/ERN AL...ADJACENT SRN TN...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY, PARTICULARLY A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT, WHERE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY POSE A
RISK FOR PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS.
..DISCUSSION
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS SIMILAR TO PRIOR RUNS CONCERNING THE
MID/UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED,
SPLIT WESTERLIES, ONE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
DIGGING INLAND OF THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST, DOWNSTREAM OF A PROMINENT
RIDGE NOW BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE NOTABLE SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATION
EMERGING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE U.S.
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.
IN LOWER-LEVELS, MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEPER SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS, WHILE DEEPENING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, DESTABILIZATION NEAR
THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBITED BY WARM AIR
ALOFT, AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO
THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CUT OFF FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES, TO THE SOUTH OF THE BROAD
MID-LEVEL RIDGING, MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLOW;
HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL PROBABLY ELONGATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY,
WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO SOUTHEAST. IN LOWER LEVELS, THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD,
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, AS
SURFACE RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
..SOUTHEAST
DIFFERENCES LINGER AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT, BUT THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND TROUGHING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A BELT OF MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW (20-30+ KT AROUND 850 MB)
ALONG A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
A DEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC MOIST PLUME EMANATING FROM THE LOWER
LATITUDES, BENEATH A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG, DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONSIDERABLE REMNANT
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CLOUD COVER, AND PERHAPS CONTINUING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY MAY ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF THIS POTENTIAL
TO BE REALIZED.
OTHERWISE, CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE, MODELS SUGGEST THAT
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC VORTICITY
CENTER MAY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA VICINITY. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PLUME,
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MIGHT STILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN WIDELY SCATTERED STRONGER CELLS, IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
..KERR.. 05/11/2025
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