127
ACUS02 KWNS 120530
SWODY2
SPC AC 120528
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS
THE U.S. TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL PROMOTE STEADY LEE
TROUGHING AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A STOUT EML WILL RESULT IN
STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE THE GREATEST. A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS GIVEN DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING, BUT
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNAL REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT RISK
PROBABILITIES. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACROSS THE EAST, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LIMITED INHIBITION, WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MS RIVER TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
BACKED TO ELONGATE HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER, DISPARITY IN RECENT GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD EARLY-MORNING PRECIPITATION PRECLUDES
HIGHLIGHTS. SIMILARLY, SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY MATERIALIZE
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/WESTERN AL TUESDAY EVENING AT THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EML WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKER. WHILE HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD LIMIT THE PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED, ROBUST STORMS.
..MOORE.. 05/12/2025
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