866
ACUS02 KWNS 131717
SWODY2
SPC AC 131716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AND PERHAPS INTO FAR WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH TAKING ON
A NEGATIVE TILT FROM MT INTO NE LATE. DURING THE DAYTIME, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL PROCEED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING UPPER
WAVE.
TO THE EAST, A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AIDING DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FORM WITHIN THE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NE. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL EARLY
ON, BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL FAVOR
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT AS WELL AS DEVELOPING 850 MB WARM FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT AN MCS OR TWO, WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL BOTH
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NE, EASTERN SD, AND FINALLY
INTO WESTERN IA AND SOUTHWEST MN. CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT SOUTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT, PERHAPS TO I-80 OR SO.
..MID ATLANTIC REGION
COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC BENEATH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
F ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE, WITH GENERALLY WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. SCATTERED
STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL NC AND VA, AND A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..JEWELL.. 05/13/2025
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