140
ACUS11 KWNS 162356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162356
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265...
VALID 162356Z - 170200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 265 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE INTENSE SUPERCELLS, AND A LONG-TRACK TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES, POTENTIALLY STRONG, ARE ONGOING IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. A 45 TO 55 KNOT
LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, ACCORDING TO
THE RAP. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WHICH HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. THE WSR-88D NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY HAVE
STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH LOOPING HODOGRAPHS.
0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS IN THE 250 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE,
SUGGESTING THAT STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST INTENSE
SUPERCELLS. A LONG-TRACK TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL IN
THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ABOVE 75 MPH.
..BROYLES.. 05/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 36828694 36818891 36898944 37198972 37508959 38718859
39438782 39458618 39238506 38978477 38418481 37478517
36908579 36828694
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN
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