516
ACUS11 KWNS 170023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170023
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-170230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170023Z - 170230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN WI/NORTHEASTERN IL AND INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
WITHIN THIS REGION, A PLUME OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
IN PLACE AMID MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN PENINSULA, WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
40-50KTS IS IN PLACE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES
OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. IT IS UNLIKELY A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
..THORNTON/GLEASON.. 05/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42598458 41658732 42328780 43008791 43528790 44018755
44948595 45058587 45358483 45198421 44568376 44068359
43508370 42938413 42598458
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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