576
ACUS11 KWNS 170027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170027
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-170230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267...
VALID 170027Z - 170230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 267 INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TEXAS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE,
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY LARGE BUOYANCY AND STRONG
(LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL) SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FWD SHOWS VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES, 500MB
TEMPERATURES OF -11 C, AND 80 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR -- ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL EXCEEDING 2". INITIALLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS
WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS, WITH A LEFT SPLIT ALREADY EVIDENT
IN CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A STORM MOTION TAKING IT TOWARDS THE DFW
METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING, IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION
THERE AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
LATER INTO THE EVENING, WITH CONDITIONS BEING MONITORED FOR
DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY,
BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO PERSIST OR DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..HALBERT.. 05/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30709863 31309855 32179843 32789795 33199735 34039473
34249401 34279315 34009261 33589204 33189182 32809175
32419196 32169267 31639430 31389508 30879616 30749656
30659698 30559754 30529825 30709863
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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