290
ACUS11 KWNS 170038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170037
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-170300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 170037Z - 170300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO / WIND-DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS
EVENING. AS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES,
WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG
AND NEAR AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE MLCAPE IS IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, ACCORDING TO THE RAP. AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER GROWS UPSCALE, A LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE SEVERE MCS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAR
NORTH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK. IF THE SEVERE PART OF THE MCS ENDS UP
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO, THEN A SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. QLCS TORNADOES AND WIND-DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 05/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 40358297 40198141 40508065 41238044 41808100 41838224
41648344 41468379 40908372 40358297
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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