619
ACUS11 KWNS 170651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170650
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-170745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 170650Z - 170745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE
SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFTS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST HAIL UP TO
1.5" IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF
THESE THUNDERSTORM CORES.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG (AND MUCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG) AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. THUS,
THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH #270 IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL NEW WATCH, AND/OR AN EXTENSION IN SPACE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #274.
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY YIELD INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME, FAVORING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH EFFECTIVE-LAYER SRH
BETWEEN 200-300 A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THE THREAT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. HERE A
LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS LINE HAS BEEN SUB-SEVERE
OF LATE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT. IF
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY INCREASES AS THESE TENNESSEE THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH ALABAMA, A NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA.
..MARSH/BUNTING.. 05/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33239095 33969101 34419000 34808745 34778557 32908685
33239095
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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