884
ACUS11 KWNS 170719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170718
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-170845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 170718Z - 170845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING. STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS, HAIL, AND A
TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
CORES. A NEW WATCH OR WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM EXISTING
WATCHES.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
CONVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE.
THE PORTION OF THE LINE ACROSS TENNESSEE, VIRGINIA, AND NORTH
CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH A MINIMUM IN FAVORABILITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HERE MUCAPE IS ONLY ABOUT 1000 J/KG, ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AT GREATER THAN 50
KNOTS. AHEAD OF THIS PORTION OF THE LINE, THE ENVIRONMENT ACTUALLY
IMPROVES TO THE EAST AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE-FOR-SEVERE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM
OF THE EXISTING LINE, A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS.
CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE
LARGE-SCALE SHEAR VECTORS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LESS DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND SLOWED THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE LINE. AS THE
MULTITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE LINEAR MCS CONTINUE TO
INTERFERE WITH ONE ANOTHER, ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAS BEEN LIMITED. DESPITE
THIS, THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
EPISODIC SEVERE POTENTIAL AND THUS THE AREA WILL ALSO BE MONITORED
FOR WATCH POTENTIAL.
..MARSH/BUNTING.. 05/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 37268118 37147926 36238050 34918282 34318520 35528546
36368286 37268118
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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