457
ACUS11 KWNS 171051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171051
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-171215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276...
VALID 171051Z - 171215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. IN
THE SHORT-TERM THE MOST IMMINENT SEVERE THREAT IS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SOON, NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.
DISCUSSION...DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY TREND
CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA.
THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS TREND ARE A COUPLE OF STRONGER CORES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HERE, SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY. SHOULD THESE STORMS SURVIVE THIS
TREK AND REACH CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NC/SC LINE, AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION AND A
RENEWED SEVERE THREAT.
ELSEWHERE, MOST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH A WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD TAKING THEIR PLACE. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SHOULD THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN/MATURE, THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER, IF THESE STORMS ARE UNABLE TO PERSIST, THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE
CANCELED EARLY.
..MARSH.. 05/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34988299 37057974 37057685 34998017 34988299
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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