565
ACUS02 KWNS 171739
SWODY2
SPC AC 171738
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS STATES, ENCOURAGING RAPID SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CO/KS TOMORROW (SUNDAY). AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING DRYLINE, RAPID NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A PRONOUNCED
EML WILL RESULT IN STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHERMORE, A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS STATES, BENEATH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COINCIDING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR, AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE, AND ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH ALL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. LASTLY, ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID TO UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY ADVECT
TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW BY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF AN ARCHING
DRYLINE, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. 8-9 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE, SUPPORTING WELL OVER 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AMID 50+ KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS,
WITH A SUBSET OF THESE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICTING
ENLARGED/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE DOMINANT MODE, WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. AT LEAST A FEW
INSTANCES OF 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR,
ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. IF A MATURE, DISCRETE SUPERCELL CAN
MATERIALIZE AND ACHIEVE SUBSTANTIAL RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE NARROW
WARM SECTOR, THE STORM MAY BECOME CYCLIC TORNADIC IN NATURE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
..KANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE,
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY, ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. QUESTIONS
REMAIN HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN INTO KS GIVEN
POSSIBLE STABILIZING IMPACTS OF THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, SOME EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD
ENCOURAGE A SECOND ROUND OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. AHEAD OF THESE STORMS AND SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD EXCEED 70 F IN SPOTS, BENEATH 8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BOOSTING MLCAPE TO OVER 3000 J/KG ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT WILL ALSO RESULT IN ENLARGED, CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND OVER 300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH SOMETIME BETWEEN 21-00Z.
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN MATURE AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL
(PERHAPS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND TORNADOES (SOME
POSSIBLY EF2+).
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL
TX OWING TO LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER,
3000+ J/KG MLCAPE AMID 300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE.
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TOMORROW (SUNDAY).
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT OVER 2000 J/KG SBCAPE, WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO ELONGATED, MAINLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/17/2025
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