883
ACUS11 KWNS 172012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172012
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-172215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172012Z - 172215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY POSE A LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...GOES 1-MINUTE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CUMULUS ALONG A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEASTERN LA.
MULTIPLE WEAK ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER
THE PAST 20 MINUTES, BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF A DECAYING SUPERCELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
MAY PROMOTE ADEQUATE ASCENT FOR A STORM OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. IF A STORM CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED, THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT (CHARACTERIZED BY 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 50 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR) WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES (THIS WAS
DEMONSTRATED BY A PRIOR CELL THAT PRODUCED 2.5 INCH HAIL NEAR
JACKSON, MS). STORM PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL
(POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS 2.5 INCHES) AND DAMAGING GUSTS. GIVEN THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS THREAT, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..MOORE/HART.. 05/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32639281 32899328 33129355 33439358 33649340 33619307
33569298 33359250 33229203 33139165 33099124 33049108
32769094 32479101 32269121 32089149 32059185 32639281
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page