879
ACUS11 KWNS 180254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180253
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...ARK-LA-TEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...
VALID 180253Z - 180500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ARK-LA-TEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ACCORDING TO MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE, ACCORDING
TO THE RAP. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX. IN
ADDITION, THE SHREVEPORT WSR-88D VWP HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS EVENING IN THE ARK-LA-TEX HAVE STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THAT A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES, AND AS A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION INCREASES.
..BROYLES.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447
33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398
34349332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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