596
ACUS11 KWNS 180430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180430
OKZ000-180630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283...
VALID 180430Z - 180630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION RADAR DATA FROM KTLX SHOWS
THREE AREAS OF SOMEWHAT WIDELY SPACED SEVERE STORMS. THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA, ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A BULLSEYE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE RAP HAS MLCAPE
ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO A LOCALIZED MAXIMUM IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE STORMS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TO SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN WITHIN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AT OKLAHOMA CITY
AND TULSA HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 52 KT AND 42 KT, RESPECTIVELY. THE
RAP IS SHOWING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8 C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34579644 34599806 34869881 35709901 36369836 36299590
35559537 34849571 34579644
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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