093
ACUS02 KWNS 180602
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS....
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL EMERGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW IN
NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN AS THE
MID-LEVEL JET EMERGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SHARP DRYLINE
WILL BE PRESENT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR OMAHA TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN MISSOURI BORDER VICINITY ON MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A
MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE
DRYLINE, EXPECT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. VERY LARGE TO POTENTIALLY GIANT HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. IN ADDITION, HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND PEAK DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME,
STORM MODE COULD BE MESSY WHICH IS ONE FACTOR PRECLUDING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
00Z CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS INCLUDING:
1. EARLIER STORMS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2. DELAYED DRYLINE INITIATION WITH A POTENTIAL TORNADO OUTBREAK TYPE
SOLUTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
3. A COMBINATION OF BOTH SOLUTIONS.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME PRECLUDES A MODERATE RISK,
BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED WHEN A MORE FAVORED SOLUTION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR, ESPECIALLY IF ONE OF THE HIGHER-END SCENARIOS
APPEARS LIKELY.
..BENTLEY.. 05/18/2025
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