445
ACUS11 KWNS 180735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180735
MSZ000-180830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 180735Z - 180830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST CORES, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF ARKANSAS
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THIS
MCV APPEARS TO BE AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS SOUTHERN
FLANK, WHERE MUCAPE IS BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS,
EPISODIC UPDRAFT PULSES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SEVERE REPORTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33819083 34218985 33978835 33088837 33349085 33819083
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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