245
ACUS11 KWNS 180924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180923
ARZ000-OKZ000-181030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 180923Z - 181030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF EXISTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #283. CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED TO DETERMINE
IF A SMALL DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. RECENT OKLAHOMA MESONET
PEAK GUSTS HAVE REPORTED 58 MPH GUST IN WEBBERS FALLS, OK, AND 55
MPH GUST IN SALLISAW, OK, WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM UPSTREAM WIND
MEASUREMENTS.
DESPITE THE RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN MEASURED WIND, THE MCS IS WELL
DEVELOPED AND ORGANIZED, HAS ACCESS TO MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #283
SO TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED TO DETERMINE IF A SMALL,
DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER PARTS OF
ARKANSAS.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 34989586 36099501 34839056 33839137 34989586
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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